LONDON — The U.K. government estimates that it could take more than a year to organize a second Brexit referendum, according a Cabinet Office paper seen by POLITICO.
The existence of the document, shared with parliamentarians in meetings with ministers this week, suggests that the government has considered the practicalities of holding a second vote. Prime Minister Theresa May has repeatedly said she would not countenance such a route out of the political deadlock over Brexit.
Officials predict that the time required for drafting of a new parliamentary bill; the passage of the legislation; the testing of the ballot paper question by elections regulator the Electoral Commission; the designation of the official campaigns and finally a 10-week campaign period could mean that a fresh vote, could not be held before early 2020.
The document was shown to party leaders including the Liberal Democrats’ Vince Cable and Plaid Cymru’s Liz Saville Roberts in meetings this week, which followed May’s invitation to senior parliamentarians to meet her to discuss options for a way forward on Brexit that could command a majority in the House of Commons.
May’s Brexit deal was overwhelmingly defeated in the Commons on Tuesday.
Advocates of a second referendum said that the government was trying to “undermine support” for a so-called People’s Vote.
“This is complete nonsense,” said Alistair Carmichael, chief whip for the Liberal Democrats, who support a second vote. “It would be perfectly possible to organize a referendum to take place in much shorter order, without trampling on constitutional and practical requirements.”
The longest process would be the passage of legislation to legally underpin a referendum, which according to the document took seven months for the 2016 vote. Within this period, the Electoral Commission would need 12 weeks to test the question.
According to the document, the regulator “must have adequate time; could need longer on a more complex question.” and their testing “must take place before the Bill passes its final amending stage so that the Question can be amended.”
May has repeatedly expressed her opposition to a second referendum, suggesting that to offer a vote with Remain as an option would be a betrayal of the 2016 referendum result.
However, a so-called people’s vote is supported by the Scottish National Party, the Liberal Democrats, dozens of Labour MPs and a handful of Conservative MPs. Labour’s leadership has not ruled out eventually backing a public vote.
A Downing Street spokesperson said: “In order to inform the discussions, a very short paper set out in factual detail the number of months that would be required. This was illustrative only. Our position is that there will be no second referendum.”